Skoolaborate

Hype Cycles - what are they?

It is difficult to get out on the 'bleeding edge' adopting new technologies without critics.  Doubts can creep into your mind - Am I  getting in to early? Will it catch on?  Is the bad press true? -

Recently (at least in Australia) there has been a lot of negative press about Virtual Worlds and there value for business.  Remember the early Hype and promise?  So should I give up - not according to Gartner. 

They describe Hype Cycles being a graphic representation of 'the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies'.  The use their model of 'Hype Cycles' to characterize the over-enthusiasm or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies such as Virtual Worlds.

The graphic that excited me the most is the one below: (source Gartner July 07)

As you read about the model you will find that these stages are quite normal for new technologies.  In particular look at Phases 3 and 4:

Phase 3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet
expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press
usually abandons the topic and the technology.

Phase 4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses
continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand
the benefits and practical application of the technology.

In my opinion, from all the indicators, the adoption of Virtual Worlds is somewhere down the 'trough of Disillusionment'.  This appears to be the best time to strike. 

Ofcourse we need to be real about what is possible, identify what it is we want to achieve and how we think we can do it, but stick to what I believe will be a transformational technology.

Recently I posted about the NMC report 'Future Horizons' that put virtual world adoption to mainstream within the next two years.  Keep this in mind as you glance through Gartners' work.  Let me add one more graphic from the report.

From this diagram it seems that we should be at least at the 'conservative investment' level if not moving towards the 'agressive investment'.  I hope this work helps you to plan adoption of a new technology that you are considering.

You need to see some great things?

It seems like I just had the networking week of the  year.  There was Alan Levine from National Media Consortium doing the kayak trip under the bridge.  Adventurous and easy going guy who had just completed his tour of Australia. 

Alan reminded me of life balance and how important it is to not only look after your work but also look after  you - nice thought!

The Horizon Project and in particular the 2007 Horizon report.  Just the first page was enough for me to realise that this is an important document. 

I urge you all to take a look at what it has to say and check that your strategy documents have it covered.

Also had a night out doing the usual Newtown tour where I made contact with Sydney University Literacy genious Angela Thomas who also has a blog to die for.  One thing  you might also like to look at is her book Youth Online.  It looks like we may be getting together to exlore some ideas around improving literacy through in world activities - more to come here!

We were joined that night by HeyJude! just to make sure I was completely over excited.  I don't think I have met a blogger quite like her since the great Lucy Grey.  I must warn you don't click on either blog unless you have hours to spare.

 

Please Meet Sean Fitzgerald

I just recently went bush walking with  Sean Fitzgerald who has, you guessed it, another great blog.  I even manged to get Sean, Bruce and Alan to do the geekiest of all things - a bushcast (hope to have it up soon) Sean's blog is so good  that I thought you should all check out this article, as a taster I have included this great article he wrote.

We will all have/be avatars soon

Posted by Sean FitzGerald on October 23rd, 2007

In an article in yesterday’s Melbourne Age about the futurist Ray Hammond - “The future is here right now, if you can read the signs” -  is this quote:

It is only a matter of time, he says, before every major business in the world is conducting meetings and transactions in a space like Second Life.

A similar quote I have been using in my presentations on virtual worlds comes from Gartner Research in April:

By the end of 2011, 80 percent of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a “second life”, but not necessarily in Second Life.

In June, I gave a presentation on why educators need to pay attention to virtual worlds for the AFLF’S E-learning Networks in which I made something like the following prediction:

If I had said to you 15 years ago that today we would all have at least two email addresses - a personal one and one for work - and that most organisations would have some form of presence on the World Wide Web, you would probably have said that I was mad.

Today I will make a similar prediction… that within ten years we will all have at least two avatars - a personal one for socialising, and one for work, and that most organisations will have a presence in a virtual world.

Let’s see how crazy that sounds in ten years time!

In fact, when you consider the number of virtual worlds that exist or are under development, the activity at the Fall Virtual Worlds Conference which points to a virtual worlds boom, and the news that companies have spent $1 billion dollars in 35 virtual worlds over the past year, I’m starting to think that ten years was a bit conservative!

And the “be” avatars mentioned in the title of this post?

Well, it will just be interesting to see how having an avatar (or two) will affect our identities and the boundaries between the virtual and the real.

Jokay - A blog to check out

Here is an entry from Joanna, a very exciting researcher that I have just heard about from Wollongong in Australia.  I love her blog and thought some of you might want to include her in your bookmarks.

eTools n Tips Recording

For those who are interested, there’s a recording on from Joanna's recent Elluminate Session for the Flexible Learning Framework’s eTools n Tips Event.

Access the recording here and the Slides here. She also provided a handout for participants which you and download here.

Also, for those who attended and wanted the links that she referred to during the session:

• Second Life in Education Wiki: a range of resources for educators exploring Second Life for use in Education and includes a detailed overview of Educational Uses of Second Life
• Getting Started in Second Life: a useful resource for setting up and getting into Second Life for the first time
• Educational Uses of Second Life: a detailed overview of projects currently happening in Second Life
• Sean’s FitzGerald’s Virtual Worlds Presentation: Virtual Worlds - What are They and Why do Educators Need to Pay Attention to Them?
• Video: Introduction to Second Life
• Second Life Website - Education Section
• Second Life Website - System Requirements
• SimTeach Wiki - resources and information from the Educational community in Second Life
• International SpaceFlight Museum:
  - Spaceport Alpha in Second Life (SLurl)
  - International Spaceflight Museum Website
• Second Life Library
  - Second Life Library 2.0 - InfoIsle (SLurl)
  - Second Life Library Blog
  - YouTube: Tour of InfoIsland
  - Virtual librariesinteract.info: Blog central for Australian Libraries in Other Worlds
• GippsTAFE’s Paluma Resort in Second Life
  - Innovative Practices Project Report: Virtual Worlds - Real Learning
  - Article on the Project: Can Vocational Education Learning Outcomes be Achieved in SL? (pg 4)
• UC Davis Medical Center’s Emergency Workers Simulation-based Training
  - CNET video - Saving lives in the virtual world - CNET News.com
• Genome Island:
  - Genome Island (SLurl)
  - SLNN Article: Swimming in the Gene Pool
• Temple of Isis:
  - The Temple of Isis (SLurl)
  - Flickr photo set - Temple of Isis
• Teen Grid Info:
  - Teen Grid website
  - Teen Grid resources on SimTeach
  - Skoolaborate - Collaborative high Schools Project based in Australia
• Jo Kay’s Virtual Island - jokaydia (SLurl)
• Virtual Hairdressing Salon (SLurl)
• Sydney Institute LearnScope Project