It is difficult to get out on the 'bleeding edge' adopting new technologies without critics. Doubts can creep into your mind - Am I getting in to early? Will it catch on? Is the bad press true? -
Recently (at least in Australia) there has been a lot of negative press about Virtual Worlds and there value for business. Remember the early Hype and promise? So should I give up - not according to Gartner.
They describe Hype Cycles being a graphic representation of 'the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies'. The use their model of 'Hype Cycles' to characterize the over-enthusiasm or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies such as Virtual Worlds.
The graphic that excited me the most is the one below: (source Gartner July 07)
As you read about the model you will find that these stages are quite normal for new technologies. In particular look at Phases 3 and 4:
Phase 3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet
expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press
usually abandons the topic and the technology.
Phase 4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses
continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand
the benefits and practical application of the technology.
In my opinion, from all the indicators, the adoption of Virtual Worlds is somewhere down the 'trough of Disillusionment'. This appears to be the best time to strike.
Ofcourse we need to be real about what is possible, identify what it is we want to achieve and how we think we can do it, but stick to what I believe will be a transformational technology.
Recently I posted about the NMC report 'Future Horizons' that put virtual world adoption to mainstream within the next two years. Keep this in mind as you glance through Gartners' work. Let me add one more graphic from the report.
From this diagram it seems that we should be at least at the 'conservative investment' level if not moving towards the 'agressive investment'. I hope this work helps you to plan adoption of a new technology that you are considering.








